Scottish Premiership Insights: Early Season Surprises and Struggles
Hearts are back in the mix, looking to disrupt the Old Firm's stranglehold on the title this season.
It's a familiar refrain from managers: they typically avoid glancing at the league table until every team has played each other. That moment has arrived in the Scottish Premiership, as the thrilling midweek matches completed the first round of games.
Despite the early stage of the 38-match campaign, the current standings can provide a glimpse into the season's trajectory. In fact, over the past three years, teams that found themselves in the top six at this point often maintained their positions come May.
So, what insights can we draw from the season thus far?
Hearts have already made headlines in European football by nearly breaking the Old Firm's dominance last season, just shy of becoming the first non-Old Firm champions since 1985. Under Wouter Vrancken, they've enjoyed a solid start, sitting third in the table, trailing Celtic by eight points and Rangers by four. This success comes after a significant summer overhaul and the introduction of a new style he calls "organised chaos."
And it’s working—only Celtic have netted more goals, and Tynecastle is proving to be a fortress, with Hearts unbeaten at home in the league since April 2025, a remarkable stretch of 26 matches. They’ve already dished out heavy defeats to Dundee United and St Mirren at their ground.
However, Wednesday's 2-2 draw against Rangers felt like a missed opportunity for Hearts, who could have edged closer to the top two. Their injury-hit squad showed signs of vulnerability late in the match, leaving them just ahead of Dundee in fourth.
While Celtic fans may be feeling uncertain about their team's form, they remain on track for a season exceeding 90 points, having claimed the title last season with 82, the lowest tally since 2017-18. Meanwhile, Rangers are also facing scrutiny from their supporters, even as both clubs dominate key performance metrics.
Across various stats—expected goals, shots on target, and chances created—Celtic and Rangers are firmly positioned at the top. They are the only teams conceding less than one goal per game, a reflection of their financial advantages, especially with Rangers absent from European competition this season.
At the bottom of the table, Kilmarnock is struggling but not completely out of the fight, sitting level on points with Hibernian and just one point behind Motherwell. Yet, bookmakers see them as the likely candidates for automatic relegation, largely due to their dismal defensive record.
Neil McCann's team has already conceded 26 goals, the highest at this stage of the season since Dundee allowed 28 in 2018-19, who subsequently went down. Historically, only twice in the last decade has the team with the worst defensive record avoided finishing last.
Currently, Kilmarnock's inability to score enough goals compounds their defensive issues, as they share the lowest goals tally in the Premiership. McCann has urged fans to be patient, citing his experience in turning around struggling teams. However, if they can't tighten their defense, they may need to score three goals every match to secure victories, a daunting prospect.
Meanwhile, Dundee United has surprised many by sitting in fourth place, raising questions about whether they have the best midfield trio in Scotland.
There’s only a six-point gap between Dundee in fourth and Aberdeen in ninth, but the mood surrounding the two clubs couldn't be more different. The bottom three—Motherwell, Hibs, and Kilmarnock—are just a winning streak away from breaking into the top half.
With so many teams closely matched and games being decided by narrow margins, examining the 'expected points' table becomes crucial. This metric estimates the points teams should have based on the quality of chances created and conceded.
It turns out Hibs and Motherwell are the league's biggest underperformers, offering a glimmer of hope that they can turn their fortunes around. Hibernian could have realistically secured seven additional points, while Motherwell's tally is six points lower than expected.
Conversely, Falkirk and Dundee are viewed as overachievers, having garnered more points than anticipated, which could suggest a potential decline is on the horizon.
Yet, this data doesn't capture the intangible qualities like work ethic and team spirit that John McGlynn and Steven Pressley have instilled in their squads. The stark contrast between the underperformers—Hibs and Motherwell—and the overachievers—Dundee and Falkirk—lies in their conversion rates. The former two are struggling in shot conversion, while the latter two excel in finding the back of the net.
As the competition heats up, it’s clear that the race for the top half will be fiercely contested, and those who fall short might find themselves in the relegation battle. Buckle up; this season promises to be a thrilling ride.
